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UWF Survey

Russell J. Dalton posits that perceptions are a reality to the voters if they use them in making electoral choices. Holding to our hypothesis, that indicators that hold prominence are therefore indicators of strength we surveyed 103 undergraduate students to measure what their perceptions were on 12 indicators of strength.

Inspiration for this methodology stems from the American National Election Studies (ANES). This survey asks, “Why does America vote as it does on Election Day?” With funding from the National Science Foundation and in collaboration with Stanford University and the University of Michigan, the ANES seeks to measure variables that will provide researchers with high quality data on voting, public opinion, and political participation that will, in turn, provide the sought after explanations of electoral outcomes. This dataset is both critical and unique. Unique because despite the vast number of respondents (n = 5914), the survey collection method collects interviews both face-to-face and online; Critical because the respondents are ordinary citizens of voting age, whose answers provide perspective on actions that determine electoral outcomes. Since 1948, this survey is conducted post-election interviews in biennial national elections and pre- AND post-election interviews during years with presidential elections.  The ANES boasts an impressive post-election, re-interview rate of 93%. 

We administered paper surveys to three undergraduate classes: American Politics, Comparative Politics, and Analyzing Issues in Political Science. surveyEach student was asked to indicate their age group, to which college they belonged, and to rank in order on a scale of 1-12 what they felt was the strongest indicator of political strength in Florida. Coding the age groups 1-7 and the colleges 1-5, we were able to input the data for descriptive statistics and observe any correlations.

Our first objective was to examine if any of the indicators proved to have more prominence than the others. The descriptive statistics (mean, median, and mode) showed that Military Presence scored slightly higher (mean=8.25) than Electoral Votes (mean=7.68) and Tourism (mean=7.23).

The remaining indicators have means separated by less than a tenth of a point. Due to the number of indicators and the number of surveys, this result was disappointing but not surprising. Observation of the modes, however, provided a more dynamic view of how the surveyed college students ranked each indicator. While the averages show similar measures, the mode allows us to observe how each indicator was ranked most often. The indicators of Coast Line and Population Distribution/Urbanization both have modes of 10 or higher.

The second objective of this survey was to see if one could, as they say judge a book by its cover. Could we statistically say that a student of one UWF college is more likely to place an indicator of strength higher or lower than any other indicators? 

The results say no. The correlations between UWF Colleges and indicators of strength do not present strong measurements to support this hypothesis. However, the highlighted measures in the table above show statitsically significant correlations. Weak though the may be, statistical significance suggests that students within the UWF College of Science and Engineering are less likely to rank the indicator of Historical Landmarks as a Florida strength, r(103)= -.244, p<.01. Similarly, albeit weak, the results suggest with a measure of statistical significance that students from the UWF College of Arts, Social Science & Humanities, are more likely to rank State Education as a Florida Strength, r(103)= .168, p<.05.

The last observation from this survey is an intercorrelation matrix between all of the Florida indicators of strength. This matrix measures the relationship between indicators. Highlighted in green are the strongest, statistically significant correlations. The first, under the column of Tourism, shows a negative correlation between Tourism and State Education, r(103)= -.417, p<.01. Under the column of Coastline, the strongest correlation with the matrix,  shows a positive correlation with Tourism, r(103)= .515, p<.01. This measure suggests that college students that rank the Florida Coastline as an indicator of strength are also likely to rank Tourism as an indicator of strength. The second largest correlation exists between Sports & Recreation and Historical Landmarks, r(103)= .444, p<.01.

The yellow measures highlight all the remaining statistically significant correlations.

The results of these observations drive the remainder of our research into state strength. The data presents the indicators of strength most prominent among college students: Population, Military Presence, Education, Coastlines, and Tourism & Sports and Recreation. Over the next entries The Florida Pulse will compare these indicators with California, New York, Ohio, Texas and Virginia.

Russell J. Dalton, et al., Political Parties & Democratic Linkage: How Parties Organize Democracy, (Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2011), 115.
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